LA-02: Still a wait-and-see...

No established pol wants to take on William Jefferson (D-LA), he of the $90K in his freezer. Jefferson who is currently under investigation by the FBI, vehemently denies all accusations of wrongdoing and firmly refuses to step aside, even though he's been removed from a key committee position by the Dem caucus.

The Times-Picayune has suggested two possibilities why candidates are reluctant to challenge Jefferson, even though the national party clearly views him as damaged goods: Money and community status.

Money is a serious factor for any challenger to Jefferson. He only has $325K in his warchest, but raising even that amount in post-K New Orleans will be tough. The RCCC probably won't touch declared GOP candidate Joe Lavigne, given the troubled incumbents they have to defend, so even he will have fundraising problems. He's got $200K, but serious name recognition issues. Not to mention he's a white Republican in New Orleans.

Community status is also significant. Second only to the late Ernest N. "Dutch" Morial, Jefferson's position in the black community is huge. His influence on the local political scene is larger than life. While it was easy for Leader Pelosi to throw him under a bus to further the cause of returning the House to Democratic control in the fall, it's not so simple back home.

Da Paper understates Jefferson's influence in the community, though. It's not just that he's an icon. His longevity has enabled him to place friends and family in influential positions across the political landscape. All federal appointees from Louisiana during the Clinton years owe their positions in part to Jefferson. For example, Jefferson got his law partner Eddie Jordan appointed as US Attorney, which enabled Jordan to run for Orleans Parish District Attorney, his current gig. Jefferson clan members are so entrenched in local government that a candidate would challenge the patriarch at her peril.

Should Jefferson step aside, the list of challengers is extensive. The one person who could gear up quickly for a short-notice campaign is City Councilman Oliver Thomas, but he's always expressed much more interest in being Mayor. Of course, nobody's ever thought of LA-02 as an open seat, so Thomas may surprise everyone. Congress is the best path for a black career politician in New Orleans, because there are no term limits. It's all but impossible for a black politician from the city to successfully run statewide. Running in LA-02 is essentially the same as running citywide, so it's either Congress or the bench.

There are three weeks to go before qualifying for the Nov. 7th primary. It's unlikely that the DoJ will move on Jefferson in that timeframe, so it remains to be seen if a Democrat will step up to challenge him.

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