October 9, 2006
Southeast LA Congressional Roundup
LA-02
When discussing the CongressCritters from this region, we always begin with LA-02, the seat of the late T. Hale Boggs, then held by his widow (and now former Ambassador to the Vatican under Clinton) Lindy Boggs. The current occupant of this seat, William Jefferson (D), was under seige at the time of Hurricane Katrina, but sexual perversion has pushed his simple economic dishonesty aside.
Had the $90K found in Jefferson's freezer by the FBI been the worst of Congressional deeds this fall, it's possible that his primary opponent, Karen Carter (D), would be doing better. Still, the biggest hurdle that Carter and the rest of the field of 12 challengers face is that they didn't fire up the campaign engines until the FBI began to zero in on Jefferson. Jefferson's influence is legendary in the city--almost every federal appointment from Louisiana during the Clinton years (including his former law partner, then US Attorney, now Orleans Parish District Attorney Eddie Jordan) has ties to Jefferson. He was Clinton's go-to man in Louisiana and was instrumental in delivering the state to the Big Dog in both elections. When Jefferson's FBI woes came to light, the players on the scene took a wait-and-see attitude, hoping the incumbent would be indicited. Since he hasn't, he's still the odds-on favorite.
State Representative Carter is the leader of the pack chasing Jefferson. Neither side has released any polling data to the public on this race, which indicates that the incumbent most likely has a strong lead, but still needs to stay under the radar. Jefferson was endorsed over the weekend by second-term New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, but even that kiss-of-death blessing won't stop his re-election.
Either way, this is a safe Dem seat. The Republican candidates in this race have no chance whatsoever.
LA-01
This district is the ideological mirror image of LA-02. It's the "white flight" region of metro New Orleans, consisting of the east bank of Jefferson Parish and most of St. Tammany Parish. The voters here are classic southern-strategy Republicans, and Republican incumbent Bobby Jindal is extremely popular. In the post-Katrina political environment, many people in this district sport "Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Jindal" bumper stickers, a direct shot at LA Governor Kathleen Blanco (D). Jindal's status as a freshman has insulated him from the Foley scandal. He has two Democratic opponents, David Gereighty and Stacey Tallitsch, but neither have the financial resources to hang the national troubles of the GOP on Jindal.
Because Jindal is likely to challenge Blanco for the governor's mansion once again in 2007, most of the Jefferson Parish political establishment is sticking with him this year. The prospect of a governor from Metairie is more attractive to Dem pols in the suburbs than the prospect of a Dem CongressCritter. LA-01 is rated "safe Republican" by most analysts and even Foley won't change that.
LA-03
This is the battleground of Southern Louisiana. Consisting of Cajun Country, the mouth of the river, and St. Bernard Parish (lower suburban New Orleans), the district is approximately 60-40 Democrat/Republican. This seat was held for 24 years by Billy Tauzin, who started out Democrat and became a "Reagan Republican." Retiring in 2004 for health reasons (prostate cancer) and so he could cash in as a lobbyist for the pharma industry, Tauzin ran his son, Billy III, for the open seat. The younger Tauzin lost a very close race to Charlie Melancon, a Dem from Napoleonville.
Melancon is being challenged this year by the second runner-up in his 2004 victory, state Sen. Craig Romero (R-New Iberia). Romero might have had a chance to sway the voters of the district had it not been for the hurricanes.
When Hurricane Katrina struck and FEMA and the White House fumbled, Melancon was on top of things, doing whatever he could and using what little influence he had to bring aid to Southeast Louisiana. People on the bayou have long memories, and what Bush did to them won't be forgotten soon. Additionally, the Catholic diocese of Houma-Thibodaux was hit hard by the pedophile-priest scandals of the 80s and 90s, so the Foley scandal is not playing well down the bayou. This has pushed LA-03 from "leaning Democrat" to "likely Democrat." There's no way Romero can run away from the national GOP, even though he has a large warchest to blow in the last 30 days.
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