December 14, 2006
Dollar Bill: A Local's Perspective
The hand-wringing over the return of William Jefferson to the 110th Congress still continues, and I've found that all too many people analyzing this situation are basically clueless to the local dynamics that allowed Jefferson to keep his seat. It seems that folks have forgotten Tip O'Neill's axiom, "all politics is local."
For openers, consider the runoff election itself. Only 16% of registered voters actually voted on December 2nd. Low-turnout elections almost always favor the incumbent. The seat was "safe," in that both candidates were Democrats. While there was a bit of late-hour netroots movement towards Carter, no serious outside support came into LA-02. Again, this favors an incumbent with a big warchest. A bigger question would be why so few people voted, particularly in light of much better turnout numbers earlier this year in the mayoral election, and that's fodder for an entirely different discussion.
But William Jefferson isn't merely an incumbent Congresscritter. Even though he is under the threat of federal indictment, he is quite the powerful political boss in Orleans and Jefferson Parishes. Let's examine who Bill Jefferson is to three important local groups.
To black voters, Jefferson has been a steady, stable pol upon whom they could rely to help them out, first as a State Senator, then as a Congressman. While a state legislator, Jefferson took a crack at running for mayor of New Orleans, losing to Marc Morial. That campaign was as nasty and dirty as any the city had ever seen, but Jefferson came out with enough name recognition to win the house seat made vacant when Lindy Boggs retired, making him the first black Congresscritter from Louisiana since Reconstruction. To maintain his political base when he left for Washington, Jefferson began to set up members of his extended family in local political positions so that now, twelve years later, it's not just Jefferson, but his family/political machine that wields power. If Jefferson himself leaves office in disgrace, members of his extended family will still be on local school boards, in the state legislature, and on the bench. Given that Jefferson is being investigated by one of the most immoral and corrupt Justice Departments in the history of the nation, it's no surprise that his history of positives makes his constituents willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Prior to the storm, it wasn't hard to find a black voter in New Orleans who felt they were being screwed by the federal government. Post-K, just about everyone of every race and political persuasion has no respect for the feds.
To local politicians, Jefferson is Boss Hogg. He's the man to go to. While others in the city were feathering their nests, developing their own political machines, and plotting futrue career advancement, Jefferson was secure that he would have no opposition. This enabled him to focus on his extended family, to the point where now he's in a "Godfather" role.
In 1992, this role as go-to guy expanded dramatically, because was one of the men most responsible for putting Louisiana in the Clinton electoral-vote total. The Big Dog showed his appreciation by following Jefferson's recommendations for many of the presidential appointments given to folks from this area. Jefferson's law partner, Eddie Jordan, became US Attorney for the region (he's now the District Attorney for Orleans Parish, also thanks in part to Jefferson's machine), and every federal judge nominee from the metro area was vetted through Jefferson's office. When you've got the president's ear to the extent Jefferson did, obviously you develop a lot of clout, so much so that even $90K of cash in your freezer can't break the binding ties. Jefferson's connections to the Clinton White House made his political machine even stronger. If local pols were to throw Jefferson under a bus, he'll be survived by many friends and family members who have long memories.
The third group of people is white folks. Jefferson didn't get the nickname "Dollar Bill" for nothing--people used to say he didn't know from black or white, just green. When Jefferson lost to Morial for mayor of New Orleans, the result was that City Hall fell into the hands of one of the most racist men in history of the city. When Morial got to the point where he was refusing to attend even social events where white people were in attendence, those folks knew they could work with Jefferson or his extended family. The December 2nd runoff was one of those times when a politician picks up markers, and Jefferson did that in a big way. Even Jefferson Parish Sheriff Harry Lee, one of our nationally-prominent racist politicians, endorsed Jefferson. The reason is simple: Jefferson is the "devil they know" as opposed to the unknown quantity that was/is Karen Carter.
The connection with Jefferson Parish is more than just black-white, though. There is some speculation that Lee's support of Jefferson factors in the possibility of Bill being indicted and having to resign. Derrick Sheppard, a state legislator from Jefferson Parish, is positioning himself to run for what would be the open congressional seat at that point, and he'll most likely get Lee's support.
And let's not forget our local Republicans. Even though the Louisiana Republican Party can organize a circular firing squad better than most Democrats, there is still a scenario that benefits them here. Governor Kathleen Blanco must stand for re-election next year, and a well-financed Republican candidate has a good shot at unseating her. Should Jefferson resign, a Republican governor would certainly appoint another Republican to the seat. With the black population of the city eroding more and more every week that there is inaction on the part of FEMA and the federal government in general, it truly is only a matter of time before black voters are diluted sufficiently that a Republican has a shot of actually winning election. While I grant you that either of these is a long shot, we're talking about metro New Orleans Republicans, and they're really not the smartest people on the planet.
To sum this all up, the dynamics of LA-02 are much more complex than the outrage in the blogosphere over Jefferson's re-election would lead you to believe. It's not just about one crooked politician and his impact on the Democratic Party's national image. It's about a political family, their impact on a city destroyed by a combination of natural forces and government inaction. It's about distrust of the Worst President Ever by people of color. When you've been screwed as badly as the people of Southeast Louisiana have been screwed, the image of a political party is low on the local priority list.
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