Before-and-After: Louisiana Politics in the wake of the storm

Yesterday's announcement that Governor Kathleen Blanco has announced she won't seek a second term, everyone is re-analyzing and re-handicapping the race for La-Gov. The conventional wisdom is that the big winner today is former US Senator John Breaux, and the big loser is Congressman Bobby Jindal. The problem is quantifying just how much each man has won or lost.

To fully understand the dynamics in play here, let's review the playing field. There are basically four regions in Louisiana that are significant in statewide elections, North, Central, Southwest, Southeast, and Metro New Orleans. Some thoughts on each region below the fold.

Northern Louisiana
The northern parishes are mostly rural, Southern Baptist, and Republican. Like many areas of the Deep South, there's a lot of racism here, and it's the "under-the-radar" voters that contributed to the rise of former KKK leader David Duke in the 1980s. They're also one of the reasons that Kathy Blanco won the governor's race in 2003. Republican Pollster Bernie Pinsonat claims that Jindal is garnering 72% of the white vote in the state at the moment, but his poll is based on the notion that white voters will come out for him simply because he's Republican. This flawed logic is one of the contributing factors in Jindal's loss in 2003.

The storm did not alter Northern Louisiana all that much. While a number of people temporarily evacuated to the Shreveport and Monroe metro areas, they didn't stay there permanently.

Central Louisiana
This is the most conservative part of the state. While the Southern Baptist influence is strong in the northern parishes, religion doesn't dominate there as it does in the center. Gambling is a huge factor in this influence. In metro Shreveport/Boissier City, the shouts of bible-thumping street preachers are drowned in a sea of green cash from the casinos on either side of the Red River. Central Louisiana has no casinos or casino cash to counteract the influence of fundamentalist, evangelical, and dominionist Christians like Louis "Woody" Jenkins. There is a strong religious/racial undercurrent to politics here, in all its code-word glory. This undercurrent is stronger than in the north because the black populations of Baton Rouge and Alexandria are larger, provoking racial reactions among white people on election day. Still, Jindal talks the Conservative Christian talk, and the preachers are open to his candidacy, mainly because they know a Catholic has a better overall chance than a dominionist.

Since the storm, Central Louisiana has changed dramatically. In the immediate aftermath of Katrina, the population of Baton Rouge doubled within a month. Many of those people have since either moved back to the New Orleans area, or they've moved out of state. The black population of Baton Rouge has increased, but not enough to alter the overall landscape. The biggest problem with blacks currently in Central Louisiana is that many still consider their "domiciles" to be in New Orleans. That means they haven't changed their voter registration status. To vote, they have to go back to the city, and that often doesn't happen.

A Blanco-Jindal race wasn't impressive to voters in the North and Central in 2003; 2007 hasn't changed them all that much. The storms did not impact these regions like they did the southern parts of the state. There's no grassroots blame-game going on in Alexandria or Ruston, no "road home" to Shreveport. In both regions, it's about classic Louisiana politics, and Bobby Jindal's skin is awfully dark for many folks to be acceptable. Now that Blanco has bowed out, John Breaux has the opportunity to turn some of those voters from staying home to actually voting for him. Breaux was extremely popular as a Senator. He was one of the original "Blue Dog" Democrats, and was a tennis partner of then-VP George H.W. Bush in the Reagan years.

Southwest Louisiana
Catholic and Cajun are the best ways to describe this part of the state. Lake Charles isn't as Catholic as the area roughly from just west of metro Baton Rouge to Crowley, but the strong fundigelical influence is muted here by casino gaming, as it is in Shreveport/Boissier. The other huge influence in Southwest Louisiana is oil. One of the reasons this region of the state easily abandoned Al Gore in 2000 after supporting Bill Clinton twice is that he was running against two oil men. The combination of black gold and Catholicism is why Southwest Louisiana produces some of the most conservative Democrats in the country. Their Catholicism makes them anti-abortion, but it also makes them very distrustful of the fundigelicals who have told them all their lives that they're going to burn in a lake of fire for all eternity simply because they're Catholic.

Even though Bobby Jindal is Catholic, the fact that he has been so quick to cozy up to the religious wing of the GOP worries the Catholics. Presented with the opportunity to vote for one of their own, the folks of Southwest Louisiana will almost always take it. That support put Blanco over the top in 2003 and helped John Breaux win every statewide election he entered. Crowley-born Breaux hasn't lost his appeal and charm in Acadiana. Attempts by the Republican Party to paint Breaux as a carpetbagger who has abandoned Louisiana for a Washington-based lobbying career will prove to be disastrous.

Hurricane Rita's impact on Southwest Louisiana was significant, but easier to overcome than the nightmare of Katrina in New Orleans. The area's oil industry infrastructure is too strong and too entrenched for anyone to abandon it easily. Same goes for the gaming industry in Lake Charles.

Southeast Louisiana
The region Morgan City eastward to the New Orleans metro area is similar to the Southwest, Catholic and Cajun, but living in the shadows of the two largest cities in the state has generated different dynamics. Energy is also the dominant industry, as many work in support of the offshore infrastructure. The folks who live in the Houma-Thibodaux area are just as Catholic as those living in Lafayette, and they're just as territorial. Rumors of the Democratic Party's demise in this region are over-exaggarated, and Congressman Charlie Melancon proved this not once, but twice, defeating several Republican challengers to keep his LA-03 seat in Congress. The GOP influence here was mostly a cult of personality, namely that of former-rep Billy Tauzin. Originally elected as a Democrat who then switched to the GOP, Tauzin is also now a Washington-based lobbyist. One of the best ways for the Breaux camp to counter accusations that their man is a carpetbagger will be to point to Tauxin and ask if the same is true of him.

The storm hit the Southeast as hard as New Orleans, and these folks have seen what the lack of overall federal support means. They didn't trust the feds much prior to the storm, and that distrust was only amplified when FEMA did its number on the state in the storm's wake.

Tomorrow I'll address metro New Orleans.