Analyzing the New Orleans District A City Council Race

Two interesting articles on the aftermath of the very ugly race for the District A City Council seat in New Orleans. First is Mike Bayham's "autopsy" of Jay Batt's failed campaign to regain his seat. Mr. Bayham points out that Republicans in Lakeview simply did not come out for Batt, costing him the election. Bayham blames this on Batt's campaign strategy:

Batt failed to effectively play the Republican card with GOP voters despite his solid cred in this area, having played a major role in Joseph Cao’s defeat of Democratic Congressman Bill Jefferson and being the lone councilman who actively opposed Kathleen Blanco’s bid for governor in 2003.

Two things here: First, Cao's win over Dollar Bill Jefferson wasn't representative of anything but a rejection of a now-convicted federal felon while he was under indictment. If Mr. Batt gave Mr. Cao good political advice, that's great, but it's not a big feather in his cap. Second, Cao is NOT highly regarded by local Republicans because of his yea vote for the Democratic party's healthcare reform bill in the House of Representatives. Reminding the GOP base of Cao would be counterproductive.

The other big point that Bayham misses (and I commented about on his blog) is the fact that Lakeview wants nothing to do with Jay Batt. To them, he's an Uptown guy who abandoned them in the immediate aftermath of the storm. That's why the "Anybody But Batt" movement grew legs and gained traction. It's important to remember that Lakeview Republicans are the people who put the lie to fundigelical talking points about the storm. When crazy preachers were pointing to New Orleans and saying the floods were God's way of purging the country of the Godless Homos, they failed to note that the 17th Street Canal breach had its greatest impact on the hardest of hardcore white-bread, Republican neighborhoods in Orleans Parish. These people were unhappy enough with him to elect a Democrat in 2006 because she (Shelly Midura) was from Lakeview, and had more in common with them than Batt. Four years and an expensive media/Internet campaign did little to rehabilitate Batt's image.

A final note on Bayham's article--his recounting of poll-watching activities on election day are an object lesson in the need for feet-on-the-ground for any campaign on election day.

Donze's article in Da Paper leads with Teh Dramah of two candidates who can't stand each other, but it's the hard numbers to put the race into perspective:

Not surprisingly, Guidry dominated Batt in every way, winning 71 of 89 precincts.

She received about 87 percent of the African-American vote and 56 percent of the non-black vote, according to an analysis by University of New Orleans political scientist Ed Chervenak.

The review of key precincts also shows that Guidry got 44 percent of the Republican vote and 93 percent of the ballots cast by Democrats and independents. Chervenak said Guidry crushed Batt in Mid-City precincts and more than held her own Uptown and in Lakeview. Batt won only the precincts in the Audubon Park and university areas and a handful of Lakeview precincts, his political base.

Batt actually lost support between the primary and the runoff, Basically, the more he spent, and the harder his print/TV/Internet campaign pushed, the more people left his cause.

One final thought: For all that Karl Rove did to remove Democrats from the state of Louisiana post-storm, the city still has a Democrat for mayor and no Republicans on the City Council, even from District A.

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